Tropical low rapidly intensifies off the Northern Territory
A tropical low situated off the coast of the Northern Territory is expected to strengthen into a cyclone by Thursday night, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). The system is currently north of the Tiwi Islands and forecast to become a Category 2 cyclone before making landfall.
Areas under highest risk
Residents along the northern Top End, including Arnhem Land and parts of the Kimberley, are being urged to prepare. Forecasts show the system may move south-towards the coastline, with heavy rain, gusty winds and large surf expected to hit. Sea surface temperatures are warm and atmospheric conditions favourable, contributing to the likely intensification of the system.
What the BoM and emergency services are saying
The BoM has released a forecast track map showing the low’s expected path. With a high risk of cyclone development later this week, authorities are urging communities in affected areas to finalise preparations now. Top-end councils and emergency services have activated warnings for possible evacuations and urged residents to secure property, check emergency kits and monitor updates.
What to expect — and how to prepare
- Wind & waves: Sea-gales and large surf are likely ahead of the system’s closest approach; boats and coastal infrastructure are at risk.
- Rain & flooding: Even if the cyclone stays offshore, heavy rainfall may cause flash flooding across low-lying regions of the Top End.
- Landfall timing: Current models suggest landfall or closest approach by Thursday night, but the exact location may still shift — staying updated is crucial.
- Precaution steps: Residents should secure loose objects (e.g., outdoor furniture), check for fallen trees, ensure their emergency plan is ready and follow any evacuation instructions.
Why this is notable
It is relatively early in the 2025-26 Australian cyclone season for a system with such potential to form and threaten coastal communities — underscoring how quickly tropical disturbances can evolve in a warm-sea environment. Conditions appear ripe for intensification: warm sea surface temperatures plus low wind shear.
What comes next
Further updates will be issued by the BoM throughout the day. Emergency services advise staying clear of beaches, river mouths and other coastal locations prone to storm surge or large swell. Residents in remote or regional areas should monitor radio broadcasts, local council alerts and the BoM website for changing warnings.
