Global mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore have restarted high-stakes merger discussions that could potentially create the world’s largest mining company, with a combined enterprise value of more than $260 billion. The two companies confirmed that they are in preliminary negotiations about a possible combination of some or all of their businesses — a deal that could dwarf most industry consolidations in recent history.
This renewed interest comes after merger talks between the two firms fell apart in late 2024 over disagreements on issues such as corporate valuation, leadership roles and the treatment of Glencore’s coal business. Analysts say that changed market conditions and strategic priorities have reopened the negotiation window.
What the Deal Could Look Like
While no binding agreement has been reached, an all-share transaction is one of the principal structures under discussion. In that scenario, Rio Tinto would acquire Glencore — or the two could combine assets — through a court-sanctioned “scheme of arrangement” under UK takeover rules. The precise contours of the deal, including which assets would be included and what management structure would follow, remain subject to intensive negotiation.
Under UK takeover regulations, Rio Tinto has until 5 February 2026 to either announce a formal intention to make an offer or declare it will not proceed, unless the Takeover Panel extends the deadline. That timeline adds urgency to discussions.
Strategic Logic: Copper, Scale and Market Power
The revived talks reflect broader shifts in the mining sector, driven by the surging demand for “critical minerals” such as copper — essential for electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, advanced electronics and AI data centres. With copper prices recently hitting record levels amid concerns about future supply shortages, consolidation is viewed as a strategic way to secure reserves and reduce cost volatility.
- Glencore is already among the world’s top copper producers, with significant operations in Australia and beyond.
- Rio Tinto holds major interests in assets like Escondida and Oyu Tolgoi — both large-scale copper operations — and has been diversifying its portfolio to reduce dependence on iron ore.
Together, the combined entity could command more than 1.5 million tonnes of annual copper production, giving it substantial leverage in global markets and position it as a key supplier for the energy transition.
Valuation and Market Reactions
Financial markets responded swiftly to the renewed merger news:
- Glencore’s shares surged on merger speculation, reflecting investors’ optimism about Glencore’s valuation and strategic fit with Rio Tinto.
- At the same time, Rio Tinto’s shares fell, as some investors expressed caution about potential overpayment and integration risks.
Even if a deal does not materialise, the fact that merger talks have resumed signals how global miners are re-evaluating their competitive positions amid evolving commodity demand.
Challenges and Points of Contention
Despite upbeat rhetoric from analysts, several major issues could complicate proceedings:
Coal and Asset Scope
One sticking point in previous talks was the handling of Glencore’s extensive coal portfolio — a business Rio Tinto exited years ago as part of its decarbonisation strategy. The inclusion of these assets remains controversial, though Glencore has been reorganising its coal holdings, which may ease negotiations.
Trading Business
Glencore’s global commodities trading arm is a powerhouse distinct from traditional mining operations and has been another point of debate over cultural and strategic fit. Integrating complex trading operations with Rio Tinto’s more upstream mining focus poses governance challenges.
Leadership and Culture
Past disagreements also centred on leadership structure post-merger and the melding of different corporate cultures. Glencore’s opportunistic, trader-oriented ethos contrasts with Rio Tinto’s more engineering-focused, long-term planning style — a tension that executives must resolve if talks proceed.
Industry Consolidation and Competitive Dynamics
Renegotiated merger talks between two of the industry’s largest players come at a time of increasing consolidation. Recent deals — such as Anglo American’s merger with Teck Resources — highlight a broader trend of miners combining to achieve scale, reduce costs and enhance access to strategic metals.
Should Rio Tinto and Glencore complete a deal, the combined company would likely surpass BHP — the current industry leader by market capitalisation — fundamentally reshaping the global mining hierarchy.
Economic and Geopolitical Implications
In addition to commercial logic, the merger discussion has geopolitical dimensions. Both companies operate globally, including in resource-rich regions of Australia, Africa, Latin America and Mongolia. A mega-miner could wield significant influence in supply chains tied to infrastructure, national industrial strategies and global energy transition policies.
The merged entity would also be better positioned to manage commodity price volatility and make large-scale, long-term investments in exploration and processing technology — critical in a world prioritising decarbonisation and electrification.
What Happens Next? Formal Offers and Due Diligence
The coming weeks will be crucial. The two companies will engage in detailed due diligence, exploring asset portfolios, liabilities and potential antitrust challenges across multiple jurisdictions. If negotiations yield terms acceptable to both boards, a formal offer could follow — potentially within weeks before the February 5 deadline.
Investors, governments and industry stakeholders will be watching closely. The outcome could redefine not just two corporations, but the future shape of global mining — aligning the sector with the strategic demands of a rapidly changing global economy.
7 years in the field, from local radio to digital newsrooms. Loves chasing the stories that matter to everyday Aussies – whether it’s climate, cost of living or the next big thing in tech.
