Protesters Defy Crackdown as Iran Warns It Will Retaliate if U.S. Attacks

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Widespread Protests Continue Despite Harsh Government Measures

Widespread anti-government demonstrations have continued across Iran for more than two weeks, with crowds of Iranians taking to the streets in cities including Tehran, Mashhad and others to protest economic hardship, political repression and the country’s clerical leadership. Despite a severe crackdown by security forces, including internet shutdowns, mass arrests and lethal force, protesters have continued to defy government efforts to suppress the movement — one of the largest internal challenges to Iran’s leadership since 2022.

Human rights groups report that the death toll has climbed to at least 116 people, including protesters and security personnel, and thousands have been detained as authorities intensify efforts to quell the unrest.


Economic Grievances Fueling Public Anger

The protests were initially sparked by soaring inflation and a collapsing currency, which have eroded living standards for many Iranians. Over time, economic grievances have broadened into more overt political demands, with some demonstrators challenging the clerical establishment’s legitimacy and calling for systemic reforms.

Security forces have responded with harsh tactics, and the government has implemented a near-total internet blackout — cutting off most forms of digital communication in an effort to stymie protest organisation and independent reporting. Cybersecurity analysts have described this as a form of “internet kill switch” meant to stifle public coordination and silence dissent.


Iranian authorities have escalated their rhetoric, with some official figures labelling demonstrators as “enemies” of the state—a serious designation under Iranian law that can carry the death penalty. The government’s attorney general has signalled that those involved in organising or supporting anti-state actions could face severe legal consequences.

This legal posturing comes amid a broader framework of government denial and repression, with security forces arresting hundreds — including alleged armed individuals — according to state media outlets.


International Tensions Rise: Iran Warns U.S. Against Intervention

Amid the unrest, tensions between Tehran and Washington have risen sharply. U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly expressed firm support for protesters and has suggested that the U.S. “stands ready to help” in response to violent suppression. This has drawn a strong rebuke from Iranian officials, who have accused the United States and Israel of attempting to exploit internal dissent and foment instability.

On January 11, 2026, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf delivered a stern warning to Washington, saying that any American military strike would prompt Tehran to retaliate against both U.S. military bases and Israeli territory, which Iran considers “legitimate targets” in the event of foreign aggression against the Islamic Republic.

This message was framed as a caution against a “miscalculation” by the U.S., underscoring how protests and domestic unrest have become interwoven with regional geopolitical tensions.


Israel on High Alert as Regional Security Concerns Mount

The Iranian warning has reverberated across the Middle East. Israeli sources have indicated that Israel is on high alert, monitoring the situation closely in case of any escalation tied to potential U.S. intervention. Although Israel has not publicly declared plans to intervene, its security apparatus is watching for any developments that could affect national defense.

Analysts caution that any U.S. military action — even limited strikes — could trigger a broader conflict involving multiple actors in the region, potentially drawing in Iran’s network of allied forces and escalating already tense relations.


Domestic Politics and Propaganda Narratives

Within Iran, the regime has portrayed foreign support for protesters as a form of external interference, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissing the protests as influenced by external powers and insisting that the government will not “back down” in the face of both internal dissent and external pressure.

Iranian officials also allege that the unrest has been stoked by foreign media and political actors, complicating the narrative of purely domestic economic frustration and framing the protests within a broader ideological and geopolitical struggle.


Global Reactions and Diplomatic Responses

International responses have varied. Human rights organisations and Western governments have condemned the use of force against protesters and underscored the right to peaceful assembly. Some countries have issued travel warnings, while diplomats have expressed concern over internet restrictions and civilian casualties.

At the same time, diplomats caution against military escalation, emphasising that foreign intervention could worsen conditions for civilians and potentially lead to wider conflict across the Middle East.


What Comes Next: Uncertain Prospects Amid Unrest and Geopolitical Risk

As protests persist despite the government’s crackdown, Iran appears locked in a complex standoff: domestic grievances are battling entrenched state authority, and international tensions are rising as external powers monitor the situation and issue warnings. Whether the unrest will force political concessions, deepen repression, or further entangle Iran in regional confrontations remains an evolving and unpredictable story — one with implications beyond its borders.

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7 years in the field, from local radio to digital newsrooms. Loves chasing the stories that matter to everyday Aussies - whether it’s climate, cost of living or the next big thing in tech.
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